Beauty retained its luster in 2022. Earlier this month, representatives of Iced Media, NielsenIQ, Mintel, the NPD Group, Google and Spate shared the latest market data and beauty trend information in the industry at Cosmetic Executive Women’s (CEW) annual presentation of The State of the Beauty Industry. The virtual, CEW exclusive, provided reports from each research group. All presentations were designed to inform and impact the way beauty brands develop and market their new and existing products.

Jill Scalamandre, CEO, Beekman 1802, and chairwoman, CEW, introduced the speakers:

• Leslie Ann Hall, CEO and founder, Iced Media;
• Sarah Jindal, senior director, beauty & personal care, Americas, Mintel;
• Yarden Horwitz, co-founder, Spate;
• Flynn Matthews, head of insights & measurement, global CPG, Google;
• Tara James Taylor, SVP-global beauty vertical leader, NielsenIQ; and
• Larissa Jensen, vice president, beauty industry advisor, The NPD Group.

Scalamandre thanked the sponsors of the event, including Mane, NielsenIQ, Mintel, NPD Group, Revuze, BeautyInc, Fairchild Media Group, and Moss; and introduced Birgit Benayoun, VP-fine fragrances, Mane. Benayoun said that Mane is a 150-year old family-run company, that explores fragrance in all its forms. She shared her company’s message, saying, “We capture what moves.”

That’s apropos of the current movement within the beauty industry today.

Iced Media: Social Trends to Watch

Hall of Iced Media, presented her organization’s methodology for benchmarking beauty rankings and trends. She also provided insights into attracting consumers in 2023. She stressed a three-pronged platform, which included, A Return to Retail, Content that Converts, and Cashing in with Creators. Hall explained that social campaigns are lifting retail sales. According to her research, campaigns boost in-store sales 30-100%. Content that Converts, highlights performance ad products and revenue transparency, to enhance retail opportunities.

Her findings indicated that creator content in paid social media is outperforming brand content and having significant impact on shopping behavior. Creators use their influence to digitally interact with consumers on various platforms, including TikTok, and are increasingly gaining traction in the social world.

“Creator-led ads are outperforming brand ads by two to one,” said Hall.

Citing a meta survey in which beauty buyers were influenced by nano influencers almost as much as macro influencers, she urged brands to “Diversify your campaigns with content that converts. Don’t be afraid to reallocate your spend.”

Mintel Highlights Beauty Trends

Mintel’s Jindal examined three trends in beauty, Now, Next and What’s Coming in the Future. Her analysis focused on Beauty RX, in which consumers seek validation or recommendations from doctors, to help them make informed choices, and Evolved Self-Care, which recognizes the impact of consumers seeking access and convenience to products with high performance. Consumers want to know that their money is well spent, and they are receiving streamlined, valuable and transparent information.

Jindal noted a rise in professional influencers, doctors and dermatologists who support the ingredients and technology of a product. She said the future of personalization is strong and will continue to cater to individualized needs. Services, devices, and science are key, including new strides in bio-engineering, DNA sequencing, and advanced technology for developing new products. She acknowledged Arcaea, currently using DNA sequencing, fermentation, and bioengineering for its innovative beauty product development.

“The future holds emerging tech opportunities, which are now being explored around the microbiome, hormones, and health diagnostics,” said Jindal.

She said increased receptivity to lab grown, bio-identical ingredients, and holistic experiences are being leveraged in beauty, as consumers explore skin diagnostics, evolving robotic dental care, and other means of Evolved Self-Care.

“Consumers are actively trying to reduce stress in their lives and beauty helps facilitate that journey,” said Jindal.

Happening now, is a movement for consumers to uplift themselves. She advised product developers to frame wellness messaging in positivity, identity and representation. All consumers should feel seen and spoken to. In her What Happens Next segment, Jindal stressed the growing importance of community, which continues to be key, post-pandemic.

“The kindness movement will continue, with health and wellness of the collective moving to the forefront. Training employees to have honest conversations with clients, will also be important,” she said.

She cited Korean brand, Vitalbeautie, by AmorePacific, for its holistic joining of traditional ingredients with the philosophy that real beauty is nurtured inside and expressed outside.

As an example of a future that caters to individual needs, Jindal noted the mind-linked Bathbots, by AmorePacific, which analyze brain waves to create customized, fragranced bath bombs. She said holistic habits, sleep, hormones, and products, will all tie into beauty.

“The new rules of engagement include pleasure, DIY and fun. What this means for consumers is that they will be interacting with beauty in engaging and experiential ways, including the metaverse,” she said.

She cited clean, vegan, and cruelty-free fragrance brand, Foope, as an example of the new wave of products offering clean fragrance and scent trial at home; and also noted a rise in gaming and beauty, citing Benefit’s live-streaming, Game Face, which interacts with gamers who share their best beauty looks, urging them to “Get Your Game Face on with Benefit.”

Online and off-line will continue to merge, with digital and metaverse options opening up for customers’ interactive journeys.

“Bringing enjoyment back to beauty is critical,” she said, adding that AR will provide crossover experiences, online and off-line. Brands can create “phygital” experiences, combining the physical and digital worlds, that will change the way consumers engage with products. Jindal cited Byredo and RTFKT’s merger to create a fragrance in the digital world; NARS launch of a color quest on Roblox in the digital space; Clinique’s launch of an NFT; and Dior teaming up with a South Korean group to create a beauty collective in an online world.

Google X Spate Present the New Face of Beauty

Flynn Matthews, head of insights & measurement, global CPG, Google and Yarden Horwitz, co-founder, Spate, presented 2023 insights into the changing face of beauty. Matthews cited growth driven by fragrance, men’s care and hair care categories. Growing trends include bronzing, glowing and dewy skin. She said, water-based, as well as glowy and matte looks were strong, and scientific breakthroughs in skin and hair continue to trend in 2023.

Horwitz shared the top beauty brands, in order of increase in average monthly searches, as La Roche Posay (+85.7K), Tatcha (+80.9K), Drunk Elephant (+65.5K), Elta MD (+61.6K), and Good Molecules (+44.7K). Top trending hair brands were Dyson, Drybar, Mielle, K18 and Nutrafol, with the “skinification of hair care,” continuing to grow. Top trending makeup brands were Fenty, Charlotte Tilbury, Rare Beauty, Elf Cosmetics and Nars. Top trending fragrance brands were Caroline Herrera, Valentino, Burberry, Scentbird and Versace.

Matthews said 2022 saw the emergence of the dermatologist. In 2023, the New Face of Beauty is falling into three categories, i.e., Passive Beauty, Expensive Beauty, and A Beautiful Awakening. Consumers are leaving their homes, post-pandemic, seeking root perms, tubing mascara, cheek stain, lip stain, tinted sunscreen, wolf cut hair styles and eyeliner stamps. Convenience continues to be a factor, and stick application is growing, with highlighter sticks, sunscreen sticks, contouring sticks and blush sticks.

In their three-category system, Expensive skin is a culmination of trends, showing a rise in treatments, such as laser, red light therapy, carbon laser peel, and ingredient focus, particularly on tretinoin.

“Science is winning in skin care,” said Horwitz, noting exfoliation, retinol, tretinoin and acids growing in popularity. Hydration is second, with ceramides, glycerin, hyaluronic acid and snail mucin all growing in popularity.

There has been an awakened concentration on the face, noted Horwitz. “Face Forward, Hair Back,” is a strong trend, and hair wax sticks and slicked back hair are gaining traction as consumers want to lead with their face. The new face of beauty in 2022 showed interest in a more serious, chiseled face, and looks were not as much about appearing younger. In 2023, the Beautiful Awakening face shows that people don’t want to look the same.

“I don’t want to be pretty, I want to be iconic,” said Horwitz. As a result, looks now range from crying faces, to space makeup, and to grunge. Celebrities are also shaking things up and impacting the way a new generation of consumers is thinking about beauty. Their three-tiered beauty saw Beautiful Awakening as a way to stand out and reflect inspiration, Expensive Beauty, aligned with premium solutions, and Passive Beauty as a reflection of a more mainstream audience seeking convenience.  They stressed that a non-recession-proof economy would largely determine the standing of each tier.

NielsenIQ 2023 Global Trends

Taylor of NielsenIQ acknowledged consumer autonomy in the beauty marketplace.

“I love that people are owning what they need and asking for it,” she said. “Beauty sales remain resilient, fragrance is strong, deodorant is growing, and the premiumization of the sun care category continues,” she said.

According to NielsenIQ, total beauty sales in the US reached $90.2 billion (up 6.7% from last year); and top beauty growth brands on Amazon, “a shining star in 2023,” were CeraVe, Dove, Gillette and L’Oréal. A relative newcomer to the list is, Mighty Patch by Hero Cosmetics; sales were driven by its best-selling acne patch.

Taylor’s trend predictions in beauty included a lip stain resurgency, liquid blush, plus ceramides and Azelaic Acid in ingredients. Splurging, as well as frugality, coexisted in the high/low category. Key themes for 2023 include innovation and sustainable beauty, sexual wellness, men’s cosmetics, acne acceptance, and menopause and aging.

Consumers are looking for gyno-recommended products, and are dialed in for pro-aging and wellness, as Boomers re-define health and aging. Sustainability continues to impact packaging solutions, as brands re-think beauty packaging and refillable options. In addition, integrating clean ingredients is an evolving conversation. There is growth in healthy food ingredients, such as kale, entering the beauty product pantheon.

Value-seeking consumers also impact the market, as 82% of beauty shoppers noticed beauty price increases. Celebrity brands continue to resonate, as does the rising influence of derms. Innovation, clean and sustainable, personalization, inclusivity, trusted spokespersons, and ingredient focus will continue to grow in 2023. Top five brands on the rise, according to NielsenIQ, were Il Makiage, Lume Deodorant, Megababe, Saie and Necesssaire. Taylor said beauty shoppers continue to buy across multiple price points, i.e., CeraVe, Charlotte Tilbury, Lancôme and Garnier.

She offered a four-point plan to connect with today’s consumer:
• Lead with value,
• Have a map and clear understanding of your consumer,
• Reduce excess and
• Emphasize social commerce.

The NPD Group Sees Beauty’s Moment

Jensen of The NPD Group called 2022 an incredible year for beauty. Dollar performance in US showed prestige beauty across categories growing in units. She noted that the merging of NPD and IRI, has enabled a more complete picture of both the prestige and mass beauty markets. Jensen placed the mass beauty market at $66 billion and prestige beauty market at $27 billion. “While the prestige market is smaller, it has twice the rate of growth as the mass beauty market during the past two years,” she said.

Brick-and-mortar is declining in mass; but in prestige, it’s a driver of growth. Jensen explained that while prestige is dominated by brick-and-mortar, more brands straddle both markets. Mass showed unit declines and price increases outpacing prestige.

“Consumers have indulged in prestige beauty and shopping frequency changes have occurred,” she said, adding, “Most prestige retailers are seeing increases in purchase frequency; however, in mass beauty, shoppers are shopping less frequently and also paying more.”

The higher income consumer drives the prestige beauty market and is spending two times more than she did pre-pandemic. Loyalty continues to be a factor in prestige, however, sales have brought in new customers. Jensen discussed the importance of promotions in beauty, particularly in fragrance; and noted that while, “Promotional levels in prestige beauty have slowed, purchase levels remain strong,” she said.

“In mass, the best way to reach consumers is knowing where they buy. Mass consumers are also sophisticated and digitally savvy, and it’s important to target shoppers both in prestige and mass, as the wall between the two has been tumbling down,” said Jensen.

Prestige categories accounted for 13 of the top 20-dollar growth segments, with facial skin care in mass contributing +20% growth. Jensen said that today’s consumer is treating herself with small indulgences, the Lipstick Index is alive and well, and consumers look for confidence and joy in beauty, particularly as economic sentiment moves in a negative direction.

“The treat mindset and wellness remain key to growth,” she said.

Fragrance for the inner self is growing, and consumers are choosing scent as a form of self-care, as mental wellness remains strong, and beauty continues to be an important tie-in to luxury. From premium fragrance to luxury hair tools and coffee machines, luxury is key. Jensen said the luxury buyer spent $2.4 billion last year on prestige beauty; and luxury is experiencing a democratization across facial skincare.

Jensen noted brand opportunities for future growth, saying clean beauty products were highly rated by consumers than other products, with vegan, natural, organic and cruelty-free at the forefront. Natural brand performance in the prestige market is outpacing natural brand performance in mass by 17%; consumers increasingly value sustainability and social responsibility initiatives; and Black-founded brands, particularly in east coast markets continue to grow.

“Prestige beauty growth remains strong and will continue even as inflation continues. The outlook for complete beauty is positive, with 70% reporting they are not cutting back on beauty. We are an industry steeped in emotion,” she said.

Contrasting prestige and mass in her presentation, Jensen noted double-digit growth in prestige beauty across all regions (except China), and strong mass market performance, however less than prestige. The strongest performance was in Latin America, in both prestige and mass. Holiday prestige outpaced mass with record beauty sales, with fragrance accounting for half of that growth.

The NPD Group's Top Beauty Launches

Top launches in dollar volume sales were as follows:

Hair Care Prestige: Olaplex No. 9 Bond Protector Nourishing Hair Serum
Hair Care Mass: Head & Shoulders 2-in-1 Dry Scalp Care Shampoo

Skincare Prestige: The Ordinary – Multi-Peptide Lash & Brow Serum
Skincare Mass: Olay Niacinamide + Peptide2 Hydrating Moisturizer

Makeup Prestige: NARS Light Reflecting Foundation
Makeup Mass: L’Oréal Paris Infallible Eyeliner Pen Black

Fragrance Prestige: Prada Paradoxe
Fragrance Mass: Old Spice Deep Sea Body Fragrance

In looking ahead, Jensen observed, “We feel it’s going to be a positive year in dollars for prestige and anticipate something similar in mass, but it remains to be seen depending on changes that may take place.”

To navigate uncertainty in the beauty market, Jensen said companies must be thoughtful, innovative, agile and dependable.